The General Theory of Quantitative Risk Assessment
From the many individual applications of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) that have been made in various fields, this paper abstracts and lifts out the concise, simple, and elegant cluster...
Moving Toward a Probability-Based Risk Analysis of the Benefits and Costs of Major Rehabilitation Projects
By the year 2010, 77% of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineer's projects will be over 40 years old. The Corps wants to allocate its scarce rehabilitation funds in a cost-effective manner. To...
Aversion to Epistemic Uncertainties in Rational Decision Making: Effects on Engineering Risk Management
When faced with epistemic uncertainties in a decision problem, subjective expected-utility theory (SEU) implies that the only relevant characteristic of these uncertainties is the mean...
Optimal Flood Warning Threshold: A Case Study in Connellsville, Pennsylvania
A methodology for selecting an optimal flood-warning threshold has been developed by Haimes et al. (1990). The probabilistic evaluation of a forecast system coupled with a stochastic dynamic...
A Probabilistic Regional Damage Estimation Model for Earthquake Occurrences
In this paper we present a model for estimating regional earthquake damage. The model utilizes the relational data base management system ORACLE and the geographic information system ARC/INFO...
Optimal Discretization of Random Fields for SFEM
A new method for discretization of random fields (representation in terms of random variables) is introduced based on the principle of optimal linear estimation theory. The method is more...
Reliability Analysis of Uncertain Systems Under Random Loadings
This study considers the reliability assessment of uncertain systems under random loadings. The fast integration method (Wen and Chen, 1987) in conjunction with a second order asymptotic...
Controlled Braking on Uneven Roads
The braking process of a passenger car may be influenced by a large number of variables relating to driver, vehicle, brake system, tire-road interaction and ambient conditions. Because...
A Selective MC Simulation Technique for Nonlinear Structural Reliability Assessment
A selective Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) procedure for the evaluation of the reliability of nonlinear structures subjected to dynamic random loading is presented. The proposed 'double...
Asymptotic Importance Sampling
One of the main issues in reliability analysis is the accurate and efficient calculation of the multivariate reliability integral. The Asymptotic Importance Sampling Technique (AIS) selects...
Sampling Techniques for Time-Variant Reliability Problems
Time-variant structural reliability problems arise when the structural resistance may change with time (such as in structural deterioration) or when the system is acted upon by two or...
Comparison of Some Importance Sampling Techniques in Structural Reliability
The approximate calculation of structural reliabilities by FORM/SORM is well known. Nevertheless, alternatives or at least methods with which the error by these methods can be quantified...
Vibration of a Bridge Under a Random Train of Moving Loads
The vibration of a beam resulting from the passage of moving loads is a problem of great importance in structural dynamics. A consistent model for the description of the loads acting on...
On the Approximated Solution of Non-Linear Systems Under Non Gaussian Excitations
The study of non-linear mechanical and structural systems under random excitations has become very important in the last years. When random excitations are Gaussian, many approaches can...
Nonlinear System under Non-Gaussian Impulsive Noise Excitation
A perturbation scheme is devised to obtain an approximate stationary probability density for the response of a nonlinear oscillator subjected to an impulsive noise excitation....
Random Vibration of the Viscoelastic Structure under Series of Stochastic Excitations
In the paper the vibration of viscoelastic single-degree-of-freedom system caused by a random series of pulses is considered. The linear rheological model for the creep law is assumed....
Probabilistic Evaluation of Redundancy of Bridge Structures
Redundancy of bridge structures and methods to evaluate redundancy are reviewed in this paper. A method to measure redundancy based on the existing theories of probability as related to...
Pre-Envelope Covariance Differential Equations
The problem of predicting the safety of structural systems subjected to random loading arises in may engineering applications. In this framework the envelope process plays an important...
Probabilistic Characteristics of a Sliding Structure Via New Stochastic Linearization Methods
New, non-classical stochastic linearization techniques are applied to solve the titled problem. Two alternative criteria, suggested by X. Zhang and I. Elishakoff, respectively, are evaluated....
Experimental Study of the Transient Temperature Distributions in Concrete
A small scale, preliminary experimental effort to quantify the randomness of the thermal diffusivity of concrete has been undertaken. Two sets of cylinders have been instrumented with...
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